STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS FOR THE PREVALENCE OF TUBERCULOSIS IN INDIA.

Background:- India is one of major contributor to global burden of tuberculosis which alone accounted for an estimated one quarter (26%) of all tuberculosis cases worldwide. The estimation of disease burden of tuberculosis is a challenge, considering its varied epidemiology and dynamics of transmission. As true disease burden cannot be estimated with count data therefore, statistical modeling techniques have been employed to analyze the disease burden in terms of prevalence of tuberculosis among males and females. Aim and Objective:- In this article efforts has been made to identify the factors which could be used to segregate the population prone to have higher risk for tuberculosis. Specifically the factors that are responsible for prevalence of tuberculosis in India during 2005 and 2015 have been identified. A comparative study of the factors responsible for prevalence of tuberculosis during these two periods has also been carried out. Methods:- In our analysis, the binary logistic regression model has been used by considering socioeconomic, demographic, cultural and health factors to know their impact on prevalence of the tuberculosis. Results:- Some of the variables under socioeconomic factors, demographic factors, cultural factors and health factors have shown decline in their impact on prevalence of tuberculosis in 2015 as compared to 2005. However rest of the variables has the same impact on the prevalence of tuberculosis without any variation. Conclusion:- The study reveals that there are some factors which were responsible for prevalence of tuberculosis in India during 2005 are also responsible for it in 2015, and these factors are continuously contributing in increasing the prevalence of tuberculosis. Hence it is suggested that there is a need to redesign the policies to minimize the risk factors generated on the part of the factors having same impact on the prevalence of tuberculosis during these two periods. .