EXISTING AND FUTURE MSW GENERATION NEXUS POPULATION AND GDP GROWTH, THE CASE OF MEKELE CITY, ETHIOPIA

* Gebru/ Zinabu Marsie, Abrha/ Birhanu Hayelom and Gashaw/Meseker Birega UNEP-Tongji, Institute of Environment for sustainable development; College of Environmental Science and Engineering; 20092, Shanghai, P.R. China ...................................................................................................................... Manuscript Info Abstract ......................... ........................................................................ Manuscript History

Municipal Solid Waste(MSW) generation is unavoidable phenomena in any Economic levels and population size. The fast expansion of urbanization, agricultural practices and industrial activities encouraged by quick population growth has produced an enormous amount of solid wastes are pollutes the environment and destroy resources.The data was generated from secondary data sources of various institutions. The range and the composition of MSW generation are highly variable and heterogynous with the contemporary way of life experience of both in low, middle and high income inhabitants. The result showed that the current scenario of MSW generation rate is small but it is tremendously in an increasing fashion parallel with population and GDP growth of Mekele City. Thus, it is important and advisable to underway well comprehensive kinds of research works in the City to identify and predict the prospect MSW generation trends together with its integrated management options.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………….... Introduction:-
Solid wastes are the materials which arise from various human and animal activities and discarded as useless or unwanted (Rana, 2007). Solid waste generation is an inevitable consequence of production and consumption activities in any economy (Eugenia et al., 2002). (UNEP, 2005) also reported that fast expansion of urban, agricultural and industrial activities spurred by rapid population growth has produced a huge amount of solid waste that pollutes the environment and destroy resources. Globally the per capita amounts of municipal solid waste generated on a daily basis vary significantly (WRI, 1996). Globalization can promote economic growth, a desirable outcome. However, this economic growth in addition to population increase and urbanization will seriously strain municipal resources to deal with booming amounts of wastes (Medina, 2002). Solid waste generation depends on the economy of the people and level of income of the family or individual. Previous studies have shown that for every Indian, an increase in income by Rs. 1000 results in an increase of solid waste generation by one kilogram per month. It is a common observation that with an increase of economic growth the waste generation grows in an equal manner. Economic growth and waste generation have not been decoupled in both developing and industrialized world (Visvanathan & Trankler, 2006). Medina (2002) also reported that a positive correlation tends to exist between a community's income and the amount of solid waste generated. Wealthier individuals consume more than lower-income ones, which result in a higher waste generation rate for the former. Income and household size are the most significant factors affecting the quantity of solid wastes from household consumption (Richardson & Havlicek, The annual waste generation in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) Region is approximately 270 million tons per year. This quantity is mainly influenced by waste generation in China, which makes up 70% of the regional total (UNEP, 2010; Wasswa & Schluep, 2008 In Eastern and Central Asia (ECA), the waste generated per year is at least 93 million tons. Eight countries in this region have no available data on waste generation in the literature. The per capita waste generation ranges from 0.29 to 2.1 kg/ person/day, with an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the most comprehensive and consistent data (e.g. PAHO's Regional Evaluation of Solid Waste Management, 2005). The total amount of waste generated per year in this region is 160 million tons, with per capita values ranging from 0.1 to 14 kg/capita/ day, and an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day. Similar to the high per capita waste generation rates on islands in Africa, the largest per capita solid waste generation rates are found in the islands of the Caribbean. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), solid waste generation is 63 million tons per year. Per capita waste generation is 0.16 to 5.7 kg/person/day, and has an average of 1.1 kg/capita/day. The (OECD) countries generate 572 million tons of solid waste per year. The per capita values range from 1.1 to 3.7 kg per person per day with an average of 2.2 kg/capita/day. In South Asia Region (SAR), approximately 70 million tons of waste is generated per year, with per capita values ranging from 0.12 to 5.1 kg per person per day and an average of 0.45 kg/capita/day. Table 3 shows current waste generation per capita by region, indicating the lower boundary and upper boundary for each region, as well as average kg per capita per day of waste generated within each region.
Table2 Of the world's waste, while Africa and South Asia figure as the regions that produce the least waste. Table 4 below shows estimates of waste generation for the year 2025 as expected. According to Hoornweg et al., 2005, current trends in population growth in each region. In the coming 10 years the East Asia and Pacific regions are the most dominant solid waste producers. Waste generation varies as a function of affluence, however, regional and country variations can be significant, as can generation rates within the same city. Throughout the report, when Africa is mentioned as a region, we refer to Sub-Saharan Africa (AFR). Data are particularly lacking for Sub-Saharan Africa. Waste generation in sub-Saharan Africa is approximately 62 million tons per year. Per capita waste generation is generally low in this region, but spans a wide range, from 0.09 to 3.0 kg per person per day, with an average of 0.65 kg/capita/day. The countries with the highest per capita rates are islands, likely due to waste generated by the tourism industry, and a more complete accounting of all wastes generated, (Wasswa & Schluep, 2008 Current Waste Generation and in Emerging Cities of Ethiopia:-Waste management in Addis Ababa is fundamentally different from other emerging cities of Ethiopia. There has been no form of waste management in emerging cities until very recently. A few of these new municipalities, as seen in Figure 5, were designed to decrease human exposure to unsanitary conditions and environmentally degrading practices. Yet, as Table 3 illustrates, the collection and management of waste in most of the municipalities is still quite inefficient. Mekele is another Ethiopian city that has recently increased solid waste generation but lacks management to accommodate the growing rates of waste. The municipality currently offers poor disposal services throughout the city, with a total of 58 collection containers ( Mekele Experiences mild climatic condition with annual average maximum temperature of 24.1 0 C and annual average minimum temperature 11.11 0 C. June is the hottest month with a monthly mean maximum temperature of 27.1 0 C and monthly mean minimum temperature of 13.03 0 C. December is the coldest month with a mean monthly maximum temperature of 21.9 0 C and monthly mean minimum temperature of 8.51 0 C. There is one short rainy season, which starts on June and lasts on August. The rainy season is characterized by erratic, unreliable and uneven distribution. The city has annual average rainfall of 618.3mm/Year of which the substantial amount falls on July and August. The highest monthly rainfall occurs on August with a monthly rainfall of 229 mm (37% of the annual) and July is the second largest rainy month with a monthly rainfall of 207.7mm (33.5% of the annual).

Data Collection Methods:-
The data was generated from the secondary data sources of Mekele City administration Municipality; Waste management and control stream. The projected population growth was estimated by the average growth rate of Mekele City; that is 4.4%,from Finance and Economic Development Office  Population Size, GDP growth and Solid waste generation forecast:-The total solid waste generated from Mekele City was calculated based on the projected population number and the per capita waste generation. The population growth also calculated by using the average annual growth rate of the City and the following formula was used to calculate the annual increment of population number.

Result and Discussion:-
In the Solid waste generation rate of residential establishments of Sub-City bases; table 6, shows that the highest per capita per day volume, per capita per day weight and per capita per day unit weight of MSW is recorded in Hadnet, Addis Alem and Industry Sub-City respectively. There are also huge differences among the largest and the smallest waste generation Scenarios ofthe Sub-City; this is due to the economic level and the number of populations within the Sub-Cities. And generally in a City level the per capita per day volume, per capita per day weight and per capita per day unit weight are 0.924, 0.268, 371.13 respectively.Thus, Solid waste generation rate of inhabitants in Mekele Sub-City bases is elaborated below graphically (per capita per day (cu m/c/d) : The rate of waste generation is known to be changed for every fiscal year. Among other factors economic status of residents is the main reason. However due to the difficulty of predicting the dynamics of economic changes and lack of previous recorded data to be used for trend analysis; so, the rate of generation is forecasted using probabilistic model.Thus, Solid waste generation rate of inhabitants in Mekele Sub-City bases is elaborated below graphically (Per capita per day weight (kg/c/d) : According to table 9-results, the connection of population, GDP and waste generation is linear relationships. As the population and the economic growth increases the waste generation per capita also increase and the waste generation of the City per year is sharply increases. For the coming ten years of waste generation in Mekele City will also increasing tremendously by the influence of the population growth and the economic developments of the City as well. It was projected the future population growth by using the following population projection formula:Pi =

Conclusion and The Way for wards:-
 Generally the Mekele City MSW generation is highly linked with the population size and the income level of the inhabitants. The MSW generation scenario of Mekele City in the Past six and the coming 10 years both the per capita and total annual generation rate for the City showed that ever increasing with linear relationships of the influencing Factors (Population and Income level of the Inhabitants).  Even though the amount of waste generation is on the sharply increment Manner, it is very insignificant relatively to the high income level countries' generation rate.  The population growth together with the economic development of the City has positive impacts in solid waste generation of the City; thus, the municipality should give serious concern on the controlling of the ever increasing MSW generation.  The generated waste must be treated accordingly the nature, compositions and the characteristics of the MSWs.  The Heterogeneity of MSW generation of the City should be managed by the participatory approaches of all stakeholders by involving in the waste Recycling, Reducing and Reuse (3R-Rules approach) responsibility roles.  There should be a strong Policy and Laws to control and treat the generation and management processes of MSWs both in Sub-Cities and City levels.