ESTIMATING AMOUNT OF BIOMASS LOSS AND CARBON RELEASED TO THE ATMOSPHERE AS A RESULT OF HABITAT CONVERSION OF EASTERN SELOUS – NIASSA TFCA

Adili Y. Zella, Josephat Saria and Yohana Lawi. 1. Department of Economic Studies, The Mwalimu Nyerere Memorial Academy (MNMA)-Zanzibar, P.O Box 307, Zanzibar, Tanzania. 2. Department of Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Technology and Environmental Studies, Open University of Tanzania, P.O Box 23409, Dares Salaam, Tanzania. ...................................................................................................................... Manuscript Info Abstract ......................... ........................................................................ Manuscript History

Countries' authorities that managing unfenced protected areas (PAs) as an effort to maintain biodiversity and ecosystem services, airs challenges of climate change and variability which disturb habitat and force wildlife to move to other unprotected areas for adaptation purposes. This scenario necessited the inclusion of those adapted areas into PAs network and recategorise the abandoned areas in the PAs. The unprotected areas include wildlife corridors which connects two or more PAs within the country or transboundary areas famously known as transfrontier conservation areas (TFCAs). However, corridor dwellers especially in developing countries unsustainably utilizing corridor fauna and flora for their livelihoods. This paper explains the less known amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as result of habitat conversion of eastern Selous -Niassa wildlife corridor which connecting the two PAs of Tanzania and Mozambique. Specifically, the study estimates amount of biomass loss, amount of carbon released to the atmosphere and amount of conservation profit disposed as a result of habitat conversion from 1986 to 2016. Existing data on spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover of eastern Selous -Niassa TFCA from 1986 -2016 was analysed to get intended results. The results reveled that, an average amount of 163732.8 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) loss annually from 1986 to 2016. Consequently, average amount of 240176.9 tons of carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) released to the atmosphere annually from 1986 to 2016 equivalent to US$ 960707.5 per annum if REDD+ was implemented. The amount of conservation profit of the area seems to offset amount of benefit received by corridor dwellers from their destructive activities if adopted REDD+ strategies. The foreseeable future necessitates inclusion of the area into core PAs, however, there is a cost which the government must incur in order to safeguard the adaptation scenarios of wildlife suffered from climate change and variability in core PAs  Fordham et al., 2013). Sub-Saharan Africa's ecosystems seem to be more vulnerable as climate changes cause extinctions of some species and affect their distribution, behavior, and reproduction of species, patterns and migrations.
Climate change is likely to accelerate the ongoing impoverishment of global biodiversity and degradation of ecosystems caused by unsustainable use of natural capital and other environmental stresses. Such degradation and disturbance in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems generate niches that can be exploited by invasive alien species, leading to further ecosystem change and degradation. Global climate change can and has been caused by natural factors in the past, including shifts in the earth's orbit; circulation of the oceans; volcanic activity, or intensity of the sun. Currently, human anthropogenic activities are changing the climate through increasing the amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Increases in carbon emissions come from burning fossil fuels like oil and gas, deforestation, developing land for farms, cities, and roads.
Considering the impacts of climate change insisted the need for new conservation areas to fill connectivity gap between protected areas (PAs) through habitat corridors so as to enable species migration with their climatic niche (Williams et al., 2005;Heller and Zavaleta, 2009). Connectivity of PAs through corridors advocacy adaptation of reserved fauna and flora under climate change. PAs are natural homes for the conservation of indigenous species that are resistant to pests, diseases and pathogens, environmental stresses and nutrient loss. PAs are also potentially beneficial as carbon sinks and for environmental conservation. The protection of corridor biodiversity relies on the ability to assess hot spots, quantify and predict spatial and temporal trends of key species maintain a natural disturbance regime and limit harmful human activities (Stohlgren et al., 1999). However, biological effectiveness of corridors is questionable by various scientists, arguing that established strategies focusing on PA aggregation and representativeness are more robust in the face of climate change (Hodgson et al., 2009). Prioritizing new conservation areas and recategorize the abandoned PAs is a debatable new agenda; while, quantitative comparisons of the effectiveness of different PAs design strategies in retaining biodiversity over time are less documented (Pressey et al., 2007;Carroll et al., 2010). Studies have applied dynamic landscape and metapopulation models to assess the relative benefits of corridors compared with larger terrestrial PAs and spatially dynamic versus static protected areas in maintaining populations for a focal species over time (Falcy and Estades, 2007;Rayfield et al., 2008). One of the primary limitations in quantitatively assessing the effectiveness of alternative habitat configuration strategies has been the lack of suitable ecological modeling frameworks.

Problem statement:-
Climate is changing and that the changes are largely due to increased levels of carbon emissions into the atmosphere caused by human activities. Global climate change is continuously caused by natural factors in the past, including shifts in the earth's orbit or the circulation of the oceans, volcanic activity, or even the intensity of the sun. Currently human activities are changing the climate by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Increases in carbon emissions come from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, developing land for farms, cities, and roads. The recommended response from society to climate change involves two sets of activities: mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation activities encompass those attempts to reduce emissions by using less energy or alternative forms of energy that produce fewer emissions of heat-trapping gases. Adaptation is the complementary component of a comprehensive response strategy to climate change and includes activities that attempt to adjust or respond to the environmental changes caused by climate change (Milad et al., 2011).
Adaptation accepts that the climate is already changing and that increased carbon dioxide levels are the new reality that we must plan for, including anticipated impacts from more severe weather (Munishi, 2010). Adaptation specifically for wildlife involves planning and taking actions that will allow wildlife to respond to this climate change with viable populations. As climate change exacerbates the threats that are already on the landscape, thus 808 the need for a new strategic framework for conservation is unavoidable (Li et al., 2007). This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders.
The aforementioned circumstances necessitate the need for Tanzania and Mozambique Governments to include eastern corridor of Selous -Niassa TFCA into the PAs ecosystem network that formulate the TFCA. However, the corridor dwellers unsustainably utilize available ecological resources for their livelihoods. The utilization involves conversion of corridor habitat to other land uses. Hence, this scenario calls for urgency estimating the amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of corridor's habitat conversion so as to plan for sustainable management strategies of the TFCA.

Objectives:-1.3.1 Main objective:-
The main objective of this study was to estimate amount of biomass and carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of eastern Selous-Niassa TFCA
URT (2015) uses conversion factors into programmed NAFORMA analysis system by tree species or species groups to provide standards in each terrestrial ecosystem of Tanzania as shown in Table 4.   (Table 5) is relatively low since most dead wood in accessible areas is collected as fuelwood. As woodlands are generally more accessible than forests, collection of deadwood for fuelwood from these areas is easier. The relatively high volume of dead wood in water is assumed to be because dead trees lying in areas with water / wetlands are difficult to access and decay slowly and because they are wet and therefore unattractive for fuelwood.      Table 8 and Table 9 revealed that, nearly 93% of closed woodland (forests) degraded compared to other vegetation type; followed by open woodland (45.74%). This implies that, average amount of 128344.25 tons and 79708.99 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from closed and open woodlands respectively loss annually from 1986 to 2016. This degradation rate impacts negatively to ecosystem services offered to wildlife residing or using the area for migration or adapting to climatic change. The degraded area converted to bushland, cultivated land and built up area due to increase of human population, livestock, and dependence of corridor dwellers on existing natural resources in the ecosystem for their livelihoods. Thereof, the average total annual loss of 163732.8 tons of biomass (above ground + below ground + deadwood) in all vegetation type from 1986 to 2016 experienced in eastern Selous -Niassa TCA. These results necessitated the inclusion of the area in core PA or formulating sustainable management strategy which will assure the survival of wildlife without compromising livelihoods of corridor dwellers. The existing formulation of wildlife management areas (WMAs) of Liwale (MAGINGO), Nachingwea (NDONDA) and Nanyumbu (MCHIMALU) districts relies only adjacently to core PAs of Selous, Msanjesi na Lukwika-Lumesule game reserves, and forgetting other areas which are crucial to wildlife as their living habitat and migration trails.

Amount of Carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of eastern Selous-Niassa TFCA from 1986 to 2016:-
The results in Table 10 and Table 11 revealed that, nearly 74.38% of closed woodland (forests) released more Carbon to the atmosphere compared to other vegetation type; followed by open woodland (46.45%). This implies that, average amount of 178643.81 tons and 111556.19 tons of Carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from closed and open woodlands respectively loss annually from 1986 to 2016. This is something that we can never stay quiet; and the need to act urgently is unquestionable. Reversing releasing of Carbon to the atmosphere is a mitigation measure, but reacting now is adapting with mitigation measures which their results will be appreciated over thousands years to come. Thus, the need for sustainable utilization and management of natural resources in the area is vital. Conversely, the average total annual loss of 240176.88 tons of Carbon (above ground + below ground + deadwood) from 1986 to 2016 experienced in eastern Selous -Niassa TCA. Since, climate change is a result of increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, there are must be strategies to reverse the situation. If, we decide to include the area into core PA network, we must incur cost that the corridor dwellers have to accept as a compensation for releasing the area for protection. In order to officiate the process, communities should be willingly accept the compensated cost that will be given to them or area similar to the previous one if and only if they actively participated and ensures that the benefits of protecting the area should be large compared to the cost. For Tanzania scenario, we must agree that those areas abandoned by wildlife which previously used as PAs should be recategorise by considering all species used to live in those areas have proper management plan which considered their climatic niche.  commercial rewarding tree species with their prices; but administering their utilization and their market chain are questionable. Thus, we need community centered decision making which is integrated but different from PFM (Participatory Forest Management), JFM (Joint Forest Management) and WMA (Wildlife Management Areas) because they really not fully integrate targeted population and they cannot benefit individual entity in the community. Also, all these scenarios do not consider that those individuals in the community are changing in time, thus, scientific revised community members monitoring strategy and recording system is unavoidable; and emphasis of integrative participatory approach as advocated by Pimbert and Prety (1995). Conclusion And Recommendations:-

Conclusion:-
This study estimated amount of biomass loss and carbon released to the atmosphere as a result of habitat conversion of wildlife corridor connecting eastern Selous -Niassa TFCA from 1986 to 2016. The findings have revealed that, the study area has undergone notable biomass loss due to socio-economic activities performed by corridor dwellers. Also amount of carbon released to the atmosphere can contribute much to climate change and climate variability. The amount of conservation profit of the area seems to offset amount of benefit received by corridor dwellers from their destructive activities if adopted REDD+ strategies. The foreseeable future necessitates inclusion of the area into core PAs; however, there is a cost which the government must incur in order to safeguard the adaptation scenarios of wildlife suffered from climate change and variability in core PAs.

Recommendations:-
The study provides the following recommendations for sustainable management and conservation of eastern Selous -Niassa TFCA:  The government and corridor dwellers should include the area in REDD+ scheme and use western paying principle scenario (i.e all vegetation species should have equal values despite of their location);  For short and medium term strategies; the government and corridor dwellers should enhance the existing wildlife management areas (WMAs), participatory forests managements (PFMs) and joint forests managements (JFMs) so nearly 90% corridor to be under PAs management of different categories;  The government should formulate user friendly guidelines for protection of wildlife corridors as stipulated in Tanzania Wildlife Conservation Act No. 5 of 2009;  The government in collaboration with other stakeholders should initiate cost effective and environmental friendly source of energy different from fuelwood