01Jul 2019

THE INFLUENCE OF LAG-1 AUTOCORRELATION ON THE MK TEST AND APPLICATION IN THE CHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS OF FLOOD DATA.

  • School of Mathematics and Statistics,Shandong University of Technology.
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In this paper, the effects of the AR(1) process with the different lag-1 serial correlation coefficients and different sample sizes on the Mann-Kendall test were analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. Then, using pre-whitening method, we modify the primary data and eliminate the influence of lag-1 serial correlation on the MK Mutation Test. Finally, based on the flood data from 1949 to 2008 in Zibo, China, the change point and the trend of the flood data were analyzed and the results between the revised and the original method were compared and discussed.


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[Jian Wang and Qiuli Dong. (2019); THE INFLUENCE OF LAG-1 AUTOCORRELATION ON THE MK TEST AND APPLICATION IN THE CHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS OF FLOOD DATA. Int. J. of Adv. Res. 7 (7). 111-116] (ISSN 2320-5407). www.journalijar.com


Qiuli Dong


DOI:


Article DOI: 10.21474/IJAR01/9332       DOI URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.21474/IJAR01/9332


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