FORECASTING OF WHEAT PRODUCTION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF PAKISTAN AND INDIA.

All investors are eager to know about the trend of wheat production, whether it will increase or decrease. Recently, wheat production has become a hot topic for everyone; it fluctuates rapidly from the past few years. In this study, we propose a time series model for forecasting annual wheat production of Pakistan and India by using secondary data in 1000MT from 1960 to 2015. By using Box-Jenkins methodology, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is selected and the model selection criterion (AIC and SBC) shows that ARIMA (1,1,1) and (0,1,1) showing good performance in case of Pakistan where ARIMA (1, 1,0) and (0,1,1) are good for India’s annual wheat production forecast. Forecasted values of ARIMA (1,1,1) and ARIMA (1,1,0) are more accurate for Pakistan and India respectively on the bases of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).