MICRO-LEVEL DETERMINANTS OF TRANSPORT ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL BEHAVIOR IN KATHMANDU, NEPAL

Transport energy demand and emissions are increasing rapidly in South Asian cities, yet household-level evidence remains scarce. This study examines household travel behavior, transport energy use, and associated CO emissions in Kathmandu,Nepal.A representative survey of 384 households was combined with discrete choice modeling, energy and emission estimation, and scenario analysis.The results show that two-wheelers dominate household mobility, contributing 42% of total energy demand and 38% of CO emissions. Cars, though less common, account for 33% of emissions due to their high fuel intensity. Multinomial and nested logit models revealed that income, education, and vehicle ownership are statistically significant determinants of mode choice. High-income households consume nearly twice the daily transport energy of low-income households. An equity analysis confirmed moderate inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.32. Scenario simulations indicated that demand and supply side interventions can deliver meaningful reductions. Enhancing public transport reduces emissions by 18%, promoting electric vehicle adoption by 22%, while an integrated policy mix achieves up to 35% reduction relative to business-as-usual. Sensitivity analysis highlighted fuel efficiency and vehicle ownership as the most influential parameters. This study makes three key contributions: (i) generating the first micro-level dataset on household transport energy in Nepal, (ii) applying discrete choice models to capture behavioral and equity dynamics, and (iii) providing evidence-based pathways for sustainable mobility. The findings emphasize that transport policies must integrate public transport improvements, equitable EV promotion, and ride-sharing platforms to achieve a just and low-carbon transition in South Asia.