EVALUATING THE CONSEQUENCES OF LAND COVER CHANGE FOR ECOSYSTEM SERVICE PROVISIONING IN THE FRAGILE LANDSCAPE OF THE RATUWA RIVER, NEPAL

Land cover change in fragile ecosystems disrupts the provision of critical ecosystem services, with cascading impacts on ecological resilience and human well-being.This study evaluates the consequences of land cover change on ecosystem service provisioning in the fragile landscape of the Ratuwa River, Nepal. Utilizing Landsat satellite imagery(1995-2023),geospatial modeling (InVEST suite), and household surveys, the research quantifies spatio temporal landscape transformation and its impact on water yield, sediment retention, and carbon storage. Results indicate a severe decline in dense forest cover (42.8% loss), largely converted to agricultural land. This transformation triggered a substantial increase in modeled surface water yield (≈18%) and sediment export (41%), alongside a significant decrease in carbon stocks (22%), indicating a profound degradation of regulating services. Community perceptions strongly corroborate these biophysical trends, reporting increased flash floods, irrigation siltation, and reduced dry-season water flow. The convergence of geospatial and socio-economic data reveals that current land-use practices prioritize short-term provisioning gains at the expense of long term regulating functions, thereby escalating socio ecological vulnerability.The findings underscore the urgent need for integrated watershed management, including targeted forest conservation, sustainable agroforestry, and potential payment for ecosystem services schemes, to safeguard the ecological infrastructure of the Churia region and ensure the sustainability of downstream livelihoods.