AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF LAND USE DYNAMICS IN PUNJAB

Land is a basic input for agriculture and it occupies an important position among all the resources. The present study was conducted to analyze the land use dynamics in Punjab state by using 30 years data from 1980-81 to 2009-10. Secondary data were collected and analyzed using tabular analysis, growth rate, markov chain analysis, and instability index. The compound growth rate analysis of the land use pattern for the entire period showed that, the area under forest has significantly increased at rate of 1.43 per cent per annum, while, area under barren and uncultivable land, and cultural waste have significantly decreased by 4.92 per cent, and 9.07per cent per annum respectively. Dynamics of land use pattern was studied using markov chain analysis, and results showed that all land use categories have shown stability in period I and the highest was in case of forest land. But, during second period the net area showed the highest probability of retention, and fallow land was having the probability of retention zero. The study found Socio economic development plays very important role in bringing change in land use pattern. Population growth, urbanization, and governmental policies are drivers of change in land use pattern in Punjab. The predicted share of different land use categories revealed that the area under forest and fallow land is likely to retain its share in the future while land not available for cultivation is likely to decrease its share in future. The share of other uncultivated land excluding fallow land is likely to increase its share in future while that of net area sown is likely to lose its share in future. The highest instability was observed in respect of miscellaneous tree crops and groves followed by permanent pasture and cultivable waste. The lowest index was noticed in case of net area sown. The study suggested to increase forest area by afforestation in barren and uncultivated land, utilization of barren and culturable land for non agricultural uses and minimization of current fallow land for better utilization of land resources. A suitable land use policy should be adopted for proper management of land to ensure sustainable agricultural growth.