MODELING AND PREDICTING THE MONO RIVER OVERFLOW UPSTREAM OF THE NANGBETO DAM IN WEST AFRICA USING MULTIPLICATIVE DETERMINIST MODEL
- Laboratory of Energetics and Applied Mechanics, Polytechnic School of Abomey-Calavi, University of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP 2009 Cotonou, Benin.
- Laboratory of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi. BP 526 Cotonou, Benin.
- Laboratory of AppliedHydrology, PolytechnicSchool of Abomey-Calavi, 01 BP: 526 INE/UAC, Cotonou, Benin.
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The variation and non-control of the overflow of the Mono River adversely affects the performance of the Nangbetohydropower plant to the point thatitcan no longermeet the increasinglyincreaseddemand for electricity. This studypresents the development of an operational model for forecastingdaily river flows for the plants water retention. The overflow of the Mono River at the upstreamhydroelectric dam from 1991 to 2019 wasanalyzed and modeled by the deterministicprocesswith R software in order to makepredictions. First, the flow serieswasanalyzed by the ARIMA model (18, 1, 2) then by a multiplicative model afterremoving the seasonal trends fromtheseseries by the movingaveragemethod. The calculatederror of the results of said model revealsthat the deterministic model integrates the input generationprocesseswith an error of the order of . Finally, an annual flow forecasting program has been developed as a planning tool for the operation of the dam, in order to meet production needs and to plan water releases.
[Taofic Bacharou, Vincent Prodjinonto and Come Agossa Linsoussi (2021); MODELING AND PREDICTING THE MONO RIVER OVERFLOW UPSTREAM OF THE NANGBETO DAM IN WEST AFRICA USING MULTIPLICATIVE DETERMINIST MODEL Int. J. of Adv. Res. 9 (Dec). 632-642] (ISSN 2320-5407). www.journalijar.com
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