SPATIALLY EXPLICIT ASSESSMENT OF THE SUITABLE AREAS FOR THE THREATENED IROKOS (MILICIA EXCELSA [WELW.] C.C. BERG) CONSERVATION IN BENIN: A COMBINATION OF GEOSTATISTICS AND ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

Although Iroko (Milicia excelsa) is listed endangered and has a great socioeconomic and cultural importance in Benin, there have been few attempts to definition of sustainable conservation strategies for the species. This study explored the spatial patterns of the species and tested if the species distribution may be affected under future climates forecasts. Moran index was used to measure the spatial autocorrelation of the abundance of Iroko. For the niche modeling, records of the species were added to bioclimatic variables (current and future conditions) and soil layers in the maximum entropy algorithm. Results showed overall a spatial dependency between Iroko population according to the density (P < 0.001). The population density seems similar between 0 and 3 km but differ from 3 to 150 km. A slight increase was noted from the present-day distribution to the future forecasts (4.71 % and 6.95 % respectively following the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Urgent conservation actions are needed to safeguard the remnant populations of Iroko in Benin.