APPLICATION OF LINEAR REGRESSION FOR PREDICTING DIGITAL TRAJECTORIES OF BENINESE MUNICIPALITIES

Background: Anticipating digital development trajectories is crucial for strategic planning and resource allocation in municipal governance. This research applies linear regression analysis within a Decision Support System (DSS) framework to predict digital development trajectories of Beninese municipalities, building on data infrastructure and K-Means clustering results from companion studies. Objective:To establish a framework for implementing regression models capable of forecasting the evolution of key territorial digitization indicators, while defining methodological and technical prerequisites for predictive approaches.

Methods:Using a standardized 45-indicator framework across multiple thematic domains, sixyears of historical data covering all 77 municipalities (462 municipality-year observations) were analyzed. Regression models incorporated temporal trend analysis and municipality-specific specifications. Validation was performed through temporal and cross-sectional approaches.