CLIMATE-RELATED WATER UNAVAILABILITY RISK IN THE PORO REGION, COTE DIVOIRE: IMPACT CHAIN AND INDICATORS

Background: Climate-related water shortages depend on hydroclimatic pressure and on the exposure and vulnerability of water-dependent systems. This study develops a factor-based framework for assessing climate-related water unavailability in the Poro Region of northern Cote dIvoire, while distinguishing causal factors from indicators. Methods: A narrative review of scientific and institutional literature was combined with a three-day multidisciplinary expert workshop involving hydrology, pedology and sociology. Experts defined the risk, organized causal factors into hazard, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and selected indicators after consensus on the causal structure. Results: The impact chain contains factors and causal links only, while a separate measurement framework contains 36 indicators: 7 for hazard, 7 for exposure, 9 for sensitivity and 13 for adaptive capacity. Hazard links warming, disrupted rainy-season timing, prolonged dry spells, evapotranspiration, drought, water deficit and reduced recharge to declining surface-water and groundwater availability. Exposure covers populations, social infrastructure, agro-pastoral activities and water-dependent systems. Sensitivity addresses storage limitations, water dependence, seasonal scarcity, vegetation loss and soil sealing, while adaptive capacity addresses governance, monitoring, crisis preparedness, infrastructure maintenance and local planning.